The rise of the dollar reflects uncertainty, the growing weakness of the Cuban currency, and the paralysis of the regime’s economic and monetary authorities, unable to contain its devaluation in a context of pronounced stagflation.
By CiberCuba Editorial Team
Saturday, May 3, 2025 – 07:09
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The US dollar continues its upward trend in Cuba’s informal market, reaching 370 Cuban pesos (CUP) this Saturday, according to the independent daily monitoring of elTOQUE.
This increase of one Cuban peso compared to the previous day represents a rise of five pesos in just one week, consolidating a sustained trend that reflects the growing pressure on the national currency.
Saturday, May 3, 2025 – 05:00
The week began with the dollar at 365 CUP, a value that remained relatively stable until Wednesday. However, since then, the greenback started a gradual increase that culminated this Saturday with a new record figure.
This increase coincides with the beginning of May, a period that typically shows greater activity in informal operations due to the sending of remittances and the supply needs of the population.
The euro has also seen a slight increase in recent days, and this Saturday it stands at 385 CUP, while the MLC (freely convertible currency) remains stable at 265 CUP, reflecting less dynamism compared to foreign currencies.
This behavior reflects the persistent distortions in the Cuban foreign exchange market, where the demand for foreign currency continues to far exceed the supply.
Despite official attempts to contain inflation and stabilize the economy, Cubans continue to turn to the informal market as the only way to access hard currency, which is essential for purchasing basic goods and dollarized services.
The ongoing devaluation of the Cuban peso highlights the lack of trust in the regime’s economic policies and underscores the failure of the official exchange market, which is disconnected from the daily reality of millions of citizens. With this new increase, it is anticipated that the price of the dollar will continue to reflect the pulse of the economic decline on the island.
The recent rise of the dollar is not an isolated event, but a direct reflection of a national economy in structural crisis. Several economists warn that Cuba is experiencing a process of stagflation, a lethal combination of persistent inflation, stagnation of economic growth, and deterioration of employment.
The sustained rise in the informal exchange rate is, in part, due to the devaluation of the Cuban peso, which has seen its purchasing power plummet. This drives an inflationary spiral, as most basic products are priced in foreign currency.
At the same time, the country is experiencing a deep productive paralysis: strategic sectors such as agriculture, industry, and tourism are operating at minimal levels. The lack of resources, low investment, and distortions in the domestic market hinder any solid economic recovery.
In this context, both visible and invisible unemployment —including underemployment and forced migration— further exacerbate the situation. The exponential increase in informal work and mass emigration reduces the active labor pool and undermines the prospects for recovery.
This combination of factors confirms that the Cuban economy is trapped in a cycle of stagflation, where traditional economic policy tools—such as controlled devaluation or subsidies—prove ineffective. The increase of the dollar is not just a figure: it is the thermometer of an economy that cannot find a way out.
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A team of journalists committed to reporting on Cuban current affairs and topics of global interest. At CiberCuba, we work to deliver truthful news and critical analysis.
A team of journalists committed to reporting on Cuban current affairs and topics of global interest. At CiberCuba, we work to deliver truthful news and critical analysis.
