Filed under:
Vegas has your money. Let’s go get it.
On Friday, the East Region 2-Seed Alabama Crimson Tide begin their (hopeful) ride to six wins and cutting down the nets to the dulcet tones of One Shining Moment. Most ‘Bama fans I suspect would be happy with three wins and an Elite 8 appearance, and positively over the moon if the Tide emerges from the same region as the Duke behemoth.
Their opponent? The Robert Morris Colonials. It’s not the first time Alabama has met BobMo U, well at least in basketball. The two schools have developed a bit of a rivalry in ACHA hockey over the last decade.
And despite the fact that most people have never heard of this tiny school on the outskirts of Pittsburgh, RMU has been a very competitive club out of the Horizon since Andrew Toole took the reins 15 years ago.
In Robert Morris’ postseason history under Toole, the Colonials took ‘Nova to OT, were competitive with Michigan State, notched upsets of St John’s and Kentucky in the NIT, and even won a first round game a few years back against North Florida. Overall, in 15 seasons, RMU has won or shared six conference titles, and made postseason play eight times. It’s a solid low-major, in short.
But, alas, they are significantly out of their athletic depth in this one, as they draw the Crimson Tide. The odds reflect that too. Quick shout-out to FanDuel for helping us keep the lights on, as they are sponsoring this post.
All odds courtesy of FanDuel, and if you’re going to spend that egg money you’ve been saving, it may as well be for something you enjoy.
Per FanDuel, Robert Morris enters this game sitting as a 22-point underdog (-110). But is that fair? Let’s find out and make a prediction, shall we?
First, we have to be mindful that ‘Bama’s stats are with a healthy Grant Nelson. We simply don’t know if he’s even going to play in the first round matchup. And, as we saw on Saturday, it’s a very different Tide without him. People greatly underestimate his worth to the team, lost in his poor start to the season and occasional turnover spates.
But, data are what data are…and there are few people that have made as much of an impact as Dakota Durant.
Grant was ‘Bama’s leading rebounder, second-leading scorer, 2nd in blocks, second in adj. +/-, second in win shares, and first in defensive win share.
Outside of Mark Sears, there’s not a single more valuable person on the stat sheet, the final score of games, or in winning them https://t.co/9bCE78ORbB
Still, we take what we have to work with here. RMU is by almost every metric a completely above-average team almost across the board — offense, defense, pace of play, wins above bubble, floor shooting. The whole shebang.
The Colonials are even quite good at a few things. They are a stout team on the offensive glass, which has helped RMU greatly offset decent-but-not great shooting efficiency. As we saw three times now against Florida and Tennessee, even average shots from inside the perimeter can become troublesome if your opponent is having greater success with their OREB. That in turn leads to other success, such as their great ability to get to the free throw line (one of the best in the low-majors, and better than Alabama’s, in both raw terms and as a percentage of offense).
Robert Morris is a solid low-major team that does a few things that Alabama could stand to work on. This will be a good way to ease into the tournament for Nate Oats, particularly in getting his team to emphasize positioning on the blocks to prevent offensive rebounds and in ball security. Alabama was simply murdered by Florida on the glass, surrendering 92 points in the paint, 27 offensive rebounds, 8 eight blocks and 13 assists in two meetings.
I’m not going to sandbag you here; this isn’t Florida — nor is it even an upset risk. RMU is a small team. They have faced one of the absolute worst schedules in the country and have had far too many narrow escapes from even those bad opponents. The Colonials are also a younger squad, and have practically no bench to speak of. They are not good perimeter shooters, and they’re terrible at hanging on to the ball. But, recall, we thought much the same against similar low-majors before, like North Dakota.
And that takes us to the biggest question in this one (aside from Nelson’s injury). Alabama has had a habit of playing down to the level of their opponent. And you do wonder about this team’s headspace after flat-out quitting against the Gators. That was demoralizing to watch, and it fairly disgusted Nate Oats too.
“I told them, ‘Do you want me to call a timeout and tell them to play harder?’ We sat in the video room after the first time we played Florida,” Oats said. “We said we’re going to be the hardest playing, toughest team. It’s not because we’re tired. We can make up a lot of excuses.
“We played last night, they played last night. 15-minute break at halftime, they played harder than us. You guys got to determine whether you’re going to play tougher or not. Then you figure some stuff out, to be honest with you. They need to figure out whether they wanted to be the hardest playing, toughest team on the floor or not.”
Related
This is now the second-time in two weeks where Nate Oats has publicly questioned this team’s desire — indeed, whether they are quitters. The first time, we saw a good rebound from them against the Tigers in Auburn and then against the Wildcats in the SECT. Will we see a more focused, mentally tough Tide on Friday?
And we simply can’t answer that. But, that caveat aside, and assuming that Grant Nelson plays a full contest, on paper at least Alabama should be able to get this one.
I’d be wary though.
Alabama -23.71
Again, thanks to FanDuel for sponsoring this. Please use this link when hitting up their site.
This poll is closed
Want some more of these? I crank the data for (almost) every single game, every single week over at my companion site: (Almost) Giving Away Money. Check it out, and prosper.
And I even added basketball in January!
Just five bucks a month. It’s cheaper than eggs!
Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537). Hope is here. GamblingHelpLineMA.org or call (800) 327-5050 for 24/7 support (MA). Visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD). Call 877-8HOPE-NY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). 21+ (18+ D.C.) and present in select states (for KS, in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino). Call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT) or visit FanDuel.com/RG.
